SC Hospital Executive Update, October 31, 2011

LARRY SABATO’S CRYSTAL BALL AND THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL RACE

This weekend I was in Charlottesville, Virginia for an event sponsored by the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The Center was Larry Sabato's brainchild, and through it he seeks to stimulate greater participation in democracy--in the US and overseas. This weekend's event was designed to give the Center's friends and supporters an inside look at the 2012 Presidential Race. Speakers included former Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, political commentators Brit Hume, Fred Barnes, and Juan Williams, CBS Evening News correspondent Wyatt Andrews, and of course Larry Sabato. It was intriguing to hear each speaker's insights into the 2012 Presidential race, and I want to use this update to synthesize for you their observations and conclusions. I won't try to attribute particular comments to individual speakers; instead, I will share with you the common observations and themes of the day.  

• There are three toxic factors for any incumbent president: extended wars, high unemployment, and scandals. President Obama faces the first two of these (even though he can argue he didn't initiate either one). As a result, history would suggest President Obama is unlikely to be re-elected.  
• Obama's re-election strategy is threefold: run against Congress ("If Congress had passed my jobs bill, the economy would have turned around by now..."); encourage high voter turnout (disenchanted voters will DEFINITELY turn out...the incumbent needs his supporters to show up as well); and demonize the Republican opponent (this will begin in earnest once the Republican primaries winnow down the contenders). If Obama can do these things successfully, he has a shot at winning the 2012 election.   
• On the Republican side, the numerous debates (8 down, 15 more to go) are creating unusual results. They are helping some candidates who debate very well (Cain, Gingrich), while hurting some who don't (Perry, Bachmann). In addition, they are allowing some poorly-funded candidates (Pawlenty, Paul, and Bachmann) to remain in the race longer than their campaign strength would indicate because it costs so little to reach millions of voters through televised debates.   
• Despite Rick Perry's hints that he might not participate in all the remaining debates, the commentators we heard this weekend found this laughable. As one commentator observed, Rick Perry is essentially saying he doesn't have time to reach millions of voters through the debates because he really needs to meet hundreds on the campaign trail. Get real! Two other reasons Perry can't improve his chances of election by skipping debates: it hasn't helped Huntsman's campaign to skip debates; and by skipping debates he risks offending state Republican leaders (most debates are co-sponsored by a network and the host state's Republican Party). It makes no sense to alienate party leaders in such a tight race. Bottom line, voters aren't fooled: Perry's problem isn't that he has more important things to do; his problem is that he's not good at debating. This hurts Perry's chances, since he will have to hold his own against Obama (an excellent debater) as well as foreign heads of state if he were to be elected President.   
• Republicans are fighting amongst themselves over the best type of candidate to run against Obama. One school of thought is that beating Obama is so critically important that Republicans can take NO chances with a candidate who is too extreme to win the votes of Independents in next year's general election. This school of thought is the driving force behind Romney's campaign. The other school of thought is that there's virtually no way the Republicans can lose next year's election, so they should select the most conservative candidate possible. This notion characterizes the campaigns of all Republicans EXCEPT Romney.     
• Most of the commentators believe Obama's re-election hopes hang on the unemployment rate. If it improves to less than 8%, his chances of re-election are good. If unemployment holds steady or gets worse, his chances are less than 50/50. 

Interestingly, Larry Sabato's research does not reinforce the notion that the unemployment rate is the litmus test for whether the incumbent president (or party, if the president is completing his second term) will win re-election. On the contrary, Sabato's analysis indicates a large number of states are safe ground for one particular party, regardless of what might happen with the unemployment rates in those states. For example, some of the states with the highest unemployment rates--California (12.1), Rhode Island (10.6), and the District of Columbia (11.1)--are safe territory for Obama because they are strong Democratic states. On the other hand, there are a number of states with relatively low unemployment (less than 7%)--Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Wyoming--that are so strongly Republican Obama will not benefit from their low unemployment rates. So while unemployment rates might matter in some swing states, that single indicator is not as strong a predictor as many commentators argue. If you're interested, here's the complete analysis. 

Speaking of swing states, Sabato identifies the following seven states as the keys to next year's election: New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and Colorado. While Sabato is quick to point out that polls are virtually meaningless 12 months ahead of the election, he believes Obama would lose 5 or 6 of these swing states if the election were held today.  

General commentary on individual candidates ran along the following lines.  

• Newt Gingrich: Lots of ideas, half of which are great, but enough baggage for a 747.  
• Herman Cain: great campaigner, but not enough depth to win out.   
• Michelle Bachmann: It's almost over   
• Ron Paul: Could run as a third party (Tea Party?) candidate when he fails to get the Republican nomination, since he has nothing to lose   
• Mitt Romney: Not exciting to the base of the Republican Party, but MUCH more appealing to Independents than most of the Republican field; as a blue state Republican, Romney is more likely than other candidates to get Independent votes   
• Rick Perry: Attractive to the conservative base, but not competitive in the swing states where he will come across as far too conservative .

There's a lot of interesting analysis on Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, and I encourage you to use this site for accurate predictions during the 2012 political season. South Carolina likes to herald itself as a bellwether state for presidential elections (the idea is that we're an early primary state and we consistently vote for the ultimate winner), but the facts suggest the Palmetto State isn't the BEST at picking presidents. To find out which states are the best predictors of presidential races, click here.

DEADLINE TO REGISTER – TODAY!!!  RECIPE FOR A SUCCESSFUL CULTURE OF WELLNESS – NOVEMBER 2ND.

You won’t want to miss this exciting opportunity to reflect on a very successful first year of Working Well!  Last year at this time Working Well hosted a “boot camp” as a kick off and now it’s time to come together again to share best practices, learn from what’s working, engage new partners, learn more about utilizing WorkHealthy America to its fullest potential in your hospital, and overcome some common challenges together.  Our goal is to have at least one representative in attendance from each of our 42 Working Well hospitals.  We’ll also be celebrating SC’s Gold Star and Gold Apple Hospitals!  There is no fee for this event and we will be unveiling new healthy menu items from SCHA’s catering menu throughout the day.  Click here to view the event brochure with agenda.  The registration deadline is fast approaching so act now!  If you need an extension, contact Kendyl Schultz via email at  kschultz@scha.org. Moderate physical activity will take place throughout the day and we invite you to dress comfortably and in your favorite sports team's attire! Please join us in this great opportunity to share, learn, and create successful cultures of wellness at hospitals across the state of South Carolina. Look forward to seeing you on November 2nd!

SAFE SURGERY CHECKLIST EDUCATION SERIES

We would like to announce that the second wave of the safe surgery checklist education series will begin on Thursday, November 3rd from 2:00-3:00 pm.  We will hold weekly webinars every Thursday from 2:00-3:00 through February 2011.  This educational series is open to anyone that would like to participate.  We strongly encourage hospitals that have not yet started this work or that are partially through this work to participate in this education series. The log-in information can be found below.

To join the training session:
1. Click here
2. Enter your name and email address.
3. Enter the session password: safesurgery
4. Click "Join Now".
5. Follow the instructions that appear on your screen.